What Israel Has Lost

The massacre of October 7, 2023, was one of the most horrific atrocities perpetrated since World War II. On that day, Hamas-led militants kidnapped Israeli children, raped Israeli women, beheaded Israeli men, and burned alive entire Israeli families in their homes. But beyond this human and moral calamity, the catastrophe that befell Israel on a bleak Sabbath morning reverberates with historic significance. Because it took place in the immediate vicinity of Gaza—the one place in which Israel had dismantled settlements and withdrawn to the 1967 border—this massacre was an attack on the idea of a Jewish state in any part of the land of Israel. Because its very essence was the slaughter of peace-loving kibbutzniks and life-celebrating music festival attendees, it was an assault on the existence of a liberal and cosmopolitan democracy in the Middle East. And because it led to a surge of anti-Semitism the likes of which had not been seen since 1945, it was a blatant act of aggression against the Jewish people as a whole.

The attack was highly significant not only for Israelis and Jews, however, but also for the entire world. Hamas was able to carry out a technically sophisticated assault thanks to its patron, Iran, which has become a formidable regional power. And Iran’s influence, in turn, rests on its links to China, North Korea, and Russia—a nascent authoritarian axis that seeks to upend the U.S.-backed liberal international order. For Israel, 7/10 was 9/11 on steroids, and for the Jewish people, 7/10 was a new Kristallnacht. But the international community should have perceived the attack as a sequel to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine: the second violent conflagration of the second Cold War. Hamas’s savagery was backed by an aggressive Iran that is supported by the authoritarian axis; as such, October 7 was a direct assault on the free world.

But if Israel had wanted to frame its war against Hamas in those terms, its government should have contended with an albatross: the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. Israel should have avowed that it was waging war against Hamas and the other terrorist proxies of Iran—and not against the Palestinian people. It should have reached an understanding with the United States and NATO concerning the essence of the war and how it would be waged. It should have declared that its objective was not only security for Israel but freedom for the people of Gaza, who deserve to be liberated from the tyranny of Hamas. Israel should have committed itself to a diplomatic process aimed at producing a just and realistic resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It should have sought to bolster ties with the moderate Arab world by signing a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. It should have captured the moral high ground before launching a fierce military campaign.

In the past, Israel’s leaders knew how to shrewdly confront existential threats. In 1947, the Zionist leader David Ben-Gurion accepted a UN partition plan before launching a war that eventually yielded a Jewish state in 78 percent of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. In 1967, Prime Minister Levi Eshkol sent his foreign minister, Abba Eban, to the White House, 10 Downing Street, and the Élysée Palace before launching the preemptive military operation that became known as the Six-Day War—and which tripled Israel’s size. In 2000, Prime Minister Ehud Barak initiated the (ultimately failed) Camp David peace summit that gave Israel the international and internal legitimacy to overcome the second intifada, which broke out a couple of months later.

But the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose a different path. It launched a war in Gaza without international legitimacy, diplomatic underpinning, or even a comprehensive strategy. It exerted outsize military force without delineating clear and achievable political objectives and with no clear theory of victory. And even as it has pulled off an impressive series of attacks that humbled the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon and defended itself from barrages of ballistic missiles from Iran, it did not forge an overall strategy. Israel has sunk ever deeper into the Gaza quagmire, neglecting to elucidate the regional and global contexts of the conflict. In short, it has played into the hands of its enemies, Iran and Hamas.

BLOWBACK

Iran’s master plan is clear: its long-term goals are to destroy Israel, dominate the Arab world, undermine the West, and once again become an imperial power. In order to achieve these goals, it is employing a three-tier strategy. First, it is attempting to acquire nuclear weapons to neutralize Israel’s strategic supremacy and secure an insurance policy. Second, Iran is manufacturing advanced conventional weaponry—rockets, cruise missiles, drones—so that it can reduce the technological advantage enjoyed by the United States, Israel, and their allies. Finally, Iran is encircling Israel with a ring of bases from which its terrorist proxies (and its own forces) could one day launch a full invasion of the Jewish state. For the time being, Iran is using these bases defensively. Once Iran goes nuclear, however, it could also go on the offensive. Tehran’s underlying assumption is that it can destroy Israel within a decade or two, take control of the Middle East, and confront the West.

Hamas and Hezbollah’s master plans are also clear. Their shared objective is to convert Israel into something like South Vietnam in the 1960s by creating a perception that the Jewish state is little more than a weak client of Washington and turning American public opinion against it. In order to do so, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was not merely willing to sacrifice Gaza’s civilian population but, in fact, he actively wished to do so. The organizing principles of his terror campaign were to use slain Palestinian women and children to sour the United States on Israel and to use the nightmarish ordeal of the hostages in Gaza to break the spirit of the Israeli public. Sinwar understood that he could not vanquish Israel immediately, and therefore he exploited its weak points as a free and prosperous society. He intended to isolate Israel, impair its high-tech economy, drive its elites abroad, and make Israeli life intolerable.

One of Sinwar’s goals in launching the October 7 offensive was to force Iran to speed up the timetable for carrying out its master plan. He hoped that following Hamas’s atrocities, Israel would act irrationally. He believed that an escalation in violence would spin out of control and ignite a multi-arena war that would eventually turn into a regional cataclysm.

On October 11, 2023, Israel’s leadership came close to making Sinwar’s ultimate dream come true. Only at the very last minute was a planned Israeli assault on Lebanon (which would have set the Middle East on fire) halted. But in the following 11 months, Israel unwittingly helped Sinwar realize his smaller yet still important goal. Its military onslaught on Gaza was as heavy-handed and shortsighted as the American campaign in Vietnam nearly 60 years ago. Although it provoked international outrage, it failed to achieve a decisive victory or a peaceful resolution.

The results are plain to see: the most just war in Israel’s history is seen by many around the world as brutal and merciless, an unfair battle between an Israeli Goliath and a Palestinian David. Few recognize or understand the role of Iran and its partners in Moscow and Beijing; fewer still see the war through the prism of the jihadi threat to Western values. Thanks to the appalling combination of Israel’s strategic mistakes, Western historical blindness, and the propaganda machines of the authoritarian powers, people all over the world see Israel as the imperial villain, instead of understanding that it is Hamas and Hezbollah that are supported by today’s most aggressive empires. Rather than being perceived as being akin to the Ukrainian fight against Russia, the war in Gaza is seen as a second Vietnam War, or another Algerian War, or an echo of the fight to preserve apartheid in South Africa.

FLYING BLIND

As Israel’s international legitimacy eroded, the situation inside the country deteriorated, too. After the initial shock of October 7, the traumatized nation was galvanized into action. In the months that followed, Israeli society mobilized, the army recovered, and a unity government formed. Creativity, resilience, and courage produced significant tactical achievements. Israel’s long-standing alliance with Washington held strong, its relations with anti-Iranian Arab regimes survived—and there were no major terror outbreaks in the West Bank or in Israel proper.

But in the absence of worthy leadership and a focused strategy, some of these achievements quickly evaporated. In the first half of 2024, the unity government dissolved, society re-splintered, the military dithered, and Israel’s bond with Washington began to fray. Around 100 hostages were still being held in Gaza’s evil tunnels, and some 100,000 Israelis became refugees in their homeland—and the Israeli government barely functioned. Far-right politicians dominated the cabinet, far-right extremists attacked civilians in the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority was in jeopardy, and there was a growing risk of a third intifada breaking out.

In the summer of 2024 came a major pivot: Israel seized the military initiative. It took control of Rafah and the border crossing to Egypt, launched a powerful act of retaliation against the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, and assassinated Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. In mid-September, the pivot became a full-fledged turnaround: a series of unprecedented attacks brought Hezbollah to its knees. On September 17, the detonation of thousands of pagers incapacitated hundreds of senior members of the Shiite terrorist organization. On September 23, the Israeli air force destroyed much of the organization’s rocket arsenal. On September 27, Hezbollah’s leadership was decimated when its revered leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and many of his deputies were killed in an aerial bombardment of their headquarters in South Beirut.

Israel’s war in Gaza has been waged haltingly and blunderingly—killing and injuring tens of thousands of civilians. In contrast, its air campaign in Lebanon has so far been carried out with astounding accuracy and alacrity. Within ten days in September, the Jewish state had reclaimed its most important strategic asset: deterrence. Throughout the Middle East, it was once again perceived as a formidable nation that can debilitate its enemies.

But in early October, the brilliant assault on Hezbollah was followed by a ground operation that has raised the risk of vicious boots-on-the-ground warfare and a regional firestorm. Nearly 200 Iranian missiles targeted Israeli sites, including the Mossad headquarters, the nuclear reactor in Dimona, and strategic air bases, leaving Israel no choice but to strike back. It became abundantly clear that the tactical genius Israel displayed last month was not part of a comprehensive strategic and political framework. It did not provide any profound solutions to the deep-seated problems that led to the October 7 debacle and characterized Israel’s behavior after that traumatic event.

A NEW ALLIANCE

But the strikes in Lebanon and the ballistic missile attack on Israel drove home the fundamental fact that had been overlooked for almost a year: the crux of the matter is Iran. October 2023 proved just how dangerous the Islamic Republic and its proxies truly are. September 2024 revealed how vulnerable they can be when confronted with determination and sophistication. The opportunity created by Israel’s recent and astonishing success must not be wasted. The new realization regarding the essence on the current regional drama should not be forgotten. As its second year begins, the war must be redefined as a fight for liberty and stability. Not only Israel but its allies, too, must take advantage of the window of time that exists before Iran can go nuclear. They must bring about a strategic shift that would secure Israel’s future and foster long-term stability in the Middle East.

The challenge ahead is far too great for Israel to deal with on its own. Just like the United Kingdom in the 1940s, Israel today is encircled by enemies that endanger liberty, and it needs something like a modern-day Atlantic Charter to cement its alliance with the United States and other like-minded countries. At its core, this new charter should embrace the basic values and shared interests of the great American democracy and the frontier Israeli democracy. Its strategic goals should be the neutralization of the Iranian threat, Arab-Israeli peace, and a creative solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The war must be redefined as a fight for liberty and stability.

In order to focus on those tasks, the present round of violence must end once Israeli forces have pushed Hezbollah away from Israel’s northern border. With international support, the Lebanese government must implement UN Security Council Resolutions 1559 and 1701, which call for the dismantling of the Shiite militia and the complete demilitarization of Southern Lebanon. Once Lebanon is no longer held hostage by Hezbollah and Israel cannot be intimidated by its terrorists, all Lebanese and all Israelis will return safely to their homes. At the very same time, Hamas must free all the remaining hostages and Israel should hand over Gaza to an Arab-Palestinian coalition led by the United Arab Emirates that would rebuild the narrow strip of land and establish a demilitarized and deradicalized post-Hamas governing body.

After the cessation of fighting in Lebanon and Gaza and after all hostages and civilians return home, the United States, NATO, Israel, and the moderate Arab governments should do what U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill did in 1941: commence a massive military and strategic buildup. The centerpiece would be a Middle East defense organization that would prevent Iranian nuclearization, halt Iranian expansion, and demobilize Iran’s proxies. A consolidated U.S.-backed alliance would warn Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that an Iranian attempt at nuclear breakout would be blocked by any means necessary. The alliance could also impose a diplomatic and economic blockade on the theocratic regime, while giving moral, financial, and political aid to Iran’s liberty-seeking population.

This new alliance against Iran would simultaneously seek to advance peace by backing the formal normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations, renewing the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and working to prevent a disastrous one-state solution. The mistakes of the past should not be repeated. Israel’s legitimate security concerns must be addressed. But the status quo is highly dangerous. A revitalized Palestinian autonomy is essential, as is the enforcement of law and order and the prevention of extremist violence. Israelis must live in full security while Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank must enjoy far greater liberty, dignity, and prosperity.

THE END OF AN ERA

What is happening today in the Middle East is not an isolated event; nor is it merely another round of hostilities. What began last October is a multidimensional event whose scope is larger than anything that has happened in the twenty-first century. This new conflict marks the end of a five-decade golden age for Israel, during which an oasis of liberty enjoyed strategic supremacy against the forces of tyranny and fanaticism that surround it. It also marks the end of an eight-decade Jewish golden age, during which collective guilt regarding the Holocaust restrained and suppressed anti-Semitism. And it marks the end of an eight-decade American golden age of Pax Americana that gave the world relative stability, prosperity, liberty, and calm. In many senses, the world is going back in time. Israelis are waging a war the likes of which they have not waged since 1948. The Jewish diaspora has been shaken by an eruption of hatred the likes of which has not occurred since the Holocaust. And Americans are facing a challenge similar to the one faced by Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman in the 1940s.

For Israel, the implications of this new historic situation are self-evident: it must rebuild its overall national resilience—and it must fully integrate itself into the free world. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition has not strengthened the Jewish state but weakened it. Instead of investing in science, education, and internal cohesion, it squandered national resources by building settlements and engaging in unnecessary provocations. It diminished state institutions, divided society, and corroded the military while eroding Zionism’s international legitimacy. Now Israelis must return to the path set forth by Ben-Gurion when Israel was young. They must reestablish the fine balance between a free society and a mobilized society. They must redefine Israel as a frontier democracy that safeguards its values in the face of evil. And even as they prepare for war, Israelis must always strive for peace.

For its part, the United States must recognize a simple truth: it’s Iran, stupid. Tehran’s ayatollahs will not stop as long as they believe that history—and China and Russia—are on their side. Iran will continue to widen its sphere of influence and endanger civilization. Therefore, Americans cannot live in comfortable isolation between the Atlantic and the Pacific. They must not ignore the dangerous developments that are swiftly transforming the world. Both the framework that stabilized the world order after 1945 and the framework that stabilized it after 1990 are facing a new threat. The first assault was with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The second was the Hamas incursion into Israel in October 2023. If the West doesn’t swiftly adopt a realistic and resolute policy, the third may come to pass when Iran carries out its first test of a nuclear weapon or when Iranian missiles defeat all defenses and rain down on Tel Aviv or Dubai. Only sober, courageous, and inspiring American leadership can prevent the unthinkable from soon becoming reality.