The Dragon Roars Back: Transformational Leaders and Dynamics of Chinese Foreign Policy

Zhao presents a robust and empirically rich rebuttal of the realist theory that China’s foreign policy is the straightforward product of its geostrategic position and the broader balance of power. Instead, he attributes such events as the Sino-Soviet split under Mao Zedong and the embrace of globalization under Deng Xiaoping to the idiosyncratic visions of transformational leaders. Today, realist theorists understand U.S.-Chinese tensions as the natural result of a rising China that is working to expand its influence against the resistance of the incumbent power. Zhao instead regards Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s “strident” diplomacy and naval buildup in the South China Sea and around Taiwan as policy errors, arising from Xi’s belief in “a resentful strain of nationalism” and supported by hubristic public opinion that Xi has fostered. The author argues that confronting the United States has unnecessarily put China in an isolated position in the face of a stronger power.