The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan

Pottinger, a former senior aide in the Trump administration, convenes an impressive roster of military experts whose chapters cumulatively propose a military strategy capable of defeating—and hence deterring—a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan. A crucial factor in defeating an invasion is the willingness of the Taiwanese public to hold off an attack for up to two months and prevent China from quickly establishing a foothold on the island. Once American forces entered the fray, U.S. ships would have to stay beyond the reach of China’s formidable submarine and missile capabilities, leaving the job of sinking Chinese ships to the United States’ silent submarines and long-distance bombers. This strategy would require the help of Australia and Japan, which might be loath to provide it. Defeating a blockade would be even more difficult. It would require the United States to bomb missile, submarine, and air defense sites on the Chinese mainland, which could prompt nuclear escalation. To avoid that risk, the threat of post-blockade sanctions might be the only deterrent. The book’s recommendations are broadly compatible with moves already in motion under the Biden administration. But given China’s efforts to generate a sense of futility in Taiwan and rising isolationist sentiment in the United States, it may be a struggle to put the required military capabilities in place.